Managing Uncertainty exam study guide Essay

Overseeing Uncertainty test study manage Essay Overseeing Uncertainty test study control Essay Overseeing Uncertainty Exam Format 4 inquiries †pick 2 1 page for each answer The inquiries will cover: definitions, hypothesis, ideas No stunt questions Use models in answers Important parts: - Origins of Wealth 1 and 6 - Use rising of cash for definitions/models The Cynefin Framework Definitions Essential Patterns of Complexity Rise and Self-Organization Large scale frameworks that appear because of activities of many (apparently disconnected) specialists Model: Traffic in India/showcase cost Availability Everything is interconnected Significant in light of the fact that anything done by an operators could influence everything else in the framework Model: changes the temperature of one sea will in the end influence each of the 7. Robbery diminished because of modest work in china. Stuff wasn’t worth taking any longer Non-Linearity Impact isn't legitimately corresponding to the reason Model: Input Effects Negative input impacts balance the framework, implying that there is no change. Positive criticism impacts intensify the change, think snowball impact. (Viral promoting) Model: Negative: snowball moving down a cold slope. Positive: Media’s impact on Lehman Turmoil Vast components in the framework at the hour of its creation, which could prompt enormous changes in the last rising conditions Model: butterfly impact Tipping Point Where a framework changes from one condition (of being) to another. (The straw that crushed the camel’s spirit) Model: Downfall of Lehman Brothers Way Dependency Past activities make structures, which lead to the improvement of imperatives in the framework. History matters. There is consistently setting. You never start from zero. Model: re-trying or constructing another underground line - Human Cognition Immaculate Rationality: Spock Encircling Bias Setting the data is surrendered (can be utilized to impact coming about resolutions). Representativeness Making enormous determinations from exceptionally little/one-sided tests. (Doesn't have full data) Accessibility Bias Putting together ends with respect to effectively available data Trouble making a decision about hazard Miss-surveying Threats